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Wednesday, October 22, 2014

HAPPY DEEPAVALI

I like to wish all my readers of the Hindu faith a HAPPY DEEPAVALI.

 
(Source: therakyatpost.com)

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Market Outlook as at October 21, 2014

FBMKLCI broke its uptrend line at 1830-1840 last week. To regain the uptrend momentum, FBMKLCI needs to first, comeback above 1800 and then, to climb back above the uptrend line (at 1840-1850). Until FBMKLCI has climbed above 1800, the bearish outlook will persist. Until it has climbed above the uptrend line, the bullish sentiment will not be present.


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at November 21, 2014_11.45am (Source: BTX)

Looking at the indices of US markets and key European markets, we can consider ourselves 'lucky'. DAX has formed a downtrend, with a lower 'low' and a lower 'high'. FTSE, S&P500 and DJIA have all formed lower 'lows' and, if the current rebound fizzles out, we will have a lower 'high'.


Chart 2: DAX's weekly chart as at November 20, 2014 (Source: Stockchart)


Chart 3: DJIA's weekly chart as at November 20, 2014 (Source: Stockchart)


Chart 4: S&P500's weekly chart as at November 20, 2014 (Source: Stockchart)


Chart 5: FTSE's weekly chart as at November 20, 2014 (Source: Stockchart)

Based on the above, we should not be too enthusiastic in buying into the market. This market requires us to exercise a lot of self-control.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of any of the indices shown above.

Thursday, October 09, 2014

LPI: Bottom-line jumped q-o-q due to investment income

Result Update

For QE30/9/2014, LPI's net profit increased by 25% q-o-q or 6% y-o-y to RM64 million while revenue inched up 3% q-o-q or 6% y-o-y to RM301 million. The improved bottom-line was mainly contributed by higher investment income received. LPI seems to have a jump in profit every 3rd quarter for the past 7 years.


Table 2: LPIs last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: LPI's last 35 quarterly results


Chart 2: LPI's last 10 yearly results

Valuation

LPI (closed at RM17.48 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 17.5 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 99 sen). At this PE multiple, LPI is deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

LPI is consolidating within a triangle, ABC. If it can break to the upside of the triangle at RM17.70, its uptrend may continue. For now, LPI will find support at RM17.00, which also happens to be the 40-week EMA line.


Chart 2: LPI's weekly chart as at Oct 8, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance, reasonable valuation & positive technical outlook, LPI is still rated a HOLD.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, LPI.

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Market Outlook as at October 7, 2014

Our market internal continued to weaken. Yesterday, FBMKLCI lost a mere 7 points but losers outnumbered gainers by 804 to 159. While FBMKLCI hung tough on its uptrend line at 1830-1840, the strength may well be temporary, due mainly to local funds supporting blue chip stocks such as TM, Axiata & Tenaga. The buying support has propelled these 3 stocks above their strong resistance. Meanwhile the middle market has been losing ground as well as market leaders, such as SKPetro, Bonia, PMetal & KSL. All these 4 stocks broke below their uptrend lines. They may remain in doldrums for a while or they may even continue to trend lower, as seen in the price movement for Petdag and GAB.

In a market where 2nd and 3rd liner stocks rein supreme, one has to wonder whether we are at the cusp of a major market top, which may not be revisited for many years. This market reminds me of 1995-1996 when speculators, fresh from their killing in the property market, charged recklessly into the 2nd Board where every stock was pushed above RM10. While our market has not reached the level of insanity of 1996, the rise of many 2nd & 3rd liner stocks has been spectacular. If our property market were to correct next year, cash-tight speculators would have to liquid their investment. Given a choice, I believe speculators would choose property over equity.

If the market continues to weaken, we could see a breakdown of the uptrend line at 1830-1840. The next stop, where a rebound must kick in, will be at 1800. Failure to stay above 1800 could signal the end of the uptrend and the market going into hopefully into a sideways market. Below 1800, I see support at 1600 & 1350.

Based on the above, I think it is time to reduce our exposure to our equity market.

 
Chart 1: FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: BTX)

 
Chart 2: Bonia's weekly chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

 
Chart 3: KSL's daily chart as at Oct 7, 2014_semilog (Source: Tradesignum)

 
Chart 4: Pmetal's daily chart as at Oct 7, 2014_semilog (Source: Tradesignum)

 
Chart 5: SKPetro's weekly chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

 
Chart 6: TM's weekly chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 7: Axiata's weekly chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 8: Tenaga's weekly chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 9: GAB's weekly chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 11: Patdag's weekly chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Yesterday, DJIA dropped 272 points. If you look at the chart below, DJIA is still in an uptrend. I would only be worried if DJIA goes below 16500-16600- the 200-day SMA line. The resilient US market acts both as a driving force propelling global markets as well as the magnet that draws away funds from emerging market during periods of uncertainty.


Chart 12: DJIA's daily chart as at Oct 7, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of any of the stocks or indices shown above.

Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Market Outlook as at September 30, 2014

Over the past 3-4 weeks, our market has dropped to the long-term uptrend line. From Chart 1, we can see that the support of that uptrend line is at 1850. We had broken below that line and we need to recover above it quickly.

Despite recent weakness among 2nd & 3rd liner stocks, FBMFLG, FBMSCAP & FBMACE are still in an uptrend line.


 Chart 1: FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: BTX)

The decline in our market mirrors similar drop in oversea markets. With the exception of DAX, most market indices are still in a long-term uptrend.


 Chart 2: STI's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts)


 Chart 3: HSI's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts)


 Chart 4: CAC's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts)


 Chart 5: FTSEs weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts)


 Chart 6: NASDAQ's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts)


 Chart 7: S&P500's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts)


 Chart 8: DAX's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts)

Despite the poor market sentiment, the technical outlook is still cautiously bullish. The decline in share prices should be viewed as a correction unless the uptrend lines are violated. Having said that, we should always exercise caution since this rally is already 5 years old. There are many investors sitting on large handsome gain and they would hesitate to sell to capture their profit.

VS: Top-line & bottom-line continue to rise

Result Update

For QE31/7/2013, VS's net profit increased more than 8-fold q-o-q but rose less than 1% y-o-y to RM36 million while revenue was up 42% q-o-q or 49% y-o-y to RM534 million. Pre-tax profit was mixed; up more than 4-fold q-o-q but down 45% y-o-y to RM21 million. Pre-tax profit jumped q-o-q mainly attributable to higher sales generated by the Malaysian operations compared to the preceding quarter coupled with improved gross profit margin resulting from improved sales mix for the Malaysian operations. For QE31/7/2014, VS's net profit was given a bump up from tax credit due to the recognition of tax incentive in relation to the enhanced export incentive.


Table 2: VS's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: VS's last 38 quarterly results

Valuation

VS (closed at RM2.59 yesterday) is trading at a trailing PE of 8.9 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 29 sen). At this multiple, VS is deemed relatively attractive.

Technical Outlook

VS is a strong uptrend. This exponential rise -not unlike what was witnessed in 2006/2007- might just happen again, with a test of the 2007 high of RM3.30. However, it must be noted that a stock that rose sharply would be prone to sharp correction too.


Chart 2: VS's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 3: VS's monthly chart as at Sep 30, 2014 (Source: Equities Tracker)

Conclusion

Based good financial performance, fairly attractive valuation and bullish technical outlook, VS is a good stock for medium-term investment (by buying on weakness).

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, VS.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Yinson: High valuation calls for high earning...

Results Update

For QE31/7/2014, Yinson's net profit increased by 2% q-o-q or 200% y-o-y to RM31 million while revenue was mixed- down 5% q-o-q but rose 23% y-o-y to RM281 million. The bottom-line improved by RM0.4 million q-o-q due to better segmental results (albeit lower revenue) and lower finance costs, which more than offset higher tax charge and lower share of results from associate and JVs. When compared to the same quarter last year, Yinson's bottom-line improved by RM20 million due to higher segmental results of RM20 million (of which RM16 million was contributed by the Marine division) and higher share of results from associate and JVs, which more than offset the increase in finance costs and tax charges.


Table 1: Yinson's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Yinson's last 28 quarterly results 

Valuation

Yinson (RM3.38 last Friday) is now trading at a trailing PE of 30.4 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 11.07 sen). At this multiple, Yinson is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

Yinson is in an uptrend, with support at RM3.00 (using the 20-week SMA line as a proxy for uptrend line).


Chart 2: Yinson's weekly chart as at Sep 26, 20114 (Source: Tadesignum)

Conclusion

Despite good financial performance & positive technical outlook, it is not easy to make a case to buy Yinson due to its high valuation. For now, I would rate it a HOLD.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of,Yinson.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Haio: Tough times ahead

Results Update

For QE31/7/2014, Haio's net profit dropped by 42% q-o-q or 29% y-o-y to RM6.2 million while revenue dropped by 19% q-o-q or 9% y-o-y to RM50 million. Revenue dropped q-o-q due to drop in revenue for all three divisions: MLM, Wholesale & Retail. The drop in MLM & Retail divisions was attributed to last quarter's higher sales which coincided with incentive trip promotion.Wholesale division's revenue dropped due to more cautious consumer spending. The decreased revenue led to lower Net Profit.

The explanation for the drop in revenue would have been acceptable except that the revenue of the immediate preceding quarter was also lower q-o-q. So what we have is a string of lower revenue - never a good thing - and declining profit which was brought on by declining sales and declining profit margin. Haio's prospect in the near term looks rather negative.


Table: Haio's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Haio's last 38 quarterly results

Valuation

Haio (at RM2.70 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PE of 14 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 19 sen. At this PE, Haio is deemed fairly valued.

Techncial Outlook

Haio is in an upward channel, with support at RM2.45 & resistance at RM3.00.


Chart 2: Haio's weekly chart as at Sep 24, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Conclusion

Based on poorer financial performance & full valuation, I would revise Haio's rating to a TAKE PROFIT.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Haio.

Scientx: Bottom-line and top-line improved

Result Update

For QE31/7/2014, Scientx's net profit increased by 34% q-o-q or 61% y-o-y to RM48.8 million while its revenue was mixed, dropped by 3% q-o-q or 12% y-o-y to RM415 million. The improved bottom-line on a q-o-q basis was attributable to higher operating profit from both the consumer packaging products and property development divisions. However, consumer packaging products division's revenue dropped 6% q-o-q.


Table 1: Scientex's last 8 quarterly results


Table 2: Scientex's segmental results


Chart 1: Scientex's last 36 quarterly results

Valuation

Scientex (at RM6.95 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PE of 10.4 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 67 sen). With strong growth of 32% last 4 quarters - and likely to continue in the next 3 years - Scientx is an attractive growth stock with PEG ratio is about 0.3 time only.

Technical Outlook

The stock is in an uptrend.The uptrend continues after the share price broke above the horizontal resistance at RM6.00-6.10 in August.


Chart 2: Scientex's weekly chart as at Sep 24, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance, attractive valuation & positive technical outlook, Scientex remains a good stock for medium to long-term investment.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Scientex.