Advertisement

Friday, March 27, 2015

VS: Bottom-line dropped q-o-q

Result Update

For QE31/1/2015, VS's net profit dropped by 48% q-o-q but rose 387% y-o-y while revenue dropped 15% q-o-q or rose 27% y-o-y to RM465 million. PBT dropped q-o-q to RM26 million as compared RM42.7  million recorded in the immediate preceding quarter (QE31/1/0/2014) due to lower sales generated by the Malaysia operations. 


Table 2: VS's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: VS's last 40 quarterly results

Valuation

VS (closed at RM4.41 last Friday) is trading at a trailing PE of 9 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 49 sen). If we exclude the exceptional large tax credit for QE31/7/2014, the 4 quarters' EPS  would be reduced to 39 sen and the trailing PE would rise to 11 times. Based on the revised PE, VS is deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

Since my last post (here), VS had gained about RM2.00 to the present price of RM4.41. Such as steep rise may not be sustainable.


Chart 3: VS's monthly chart as at Mar 26, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based a decline in financial performance and recent sharp rise in share price, it may be advisable to take some profit on this stock.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, VS.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

CIMB: Poised for Recovery

CIMB has just broken to the upside of its ascending triangle, ABC at RM6.07. Now it is trading at RM6.09-6.10. The volume is relatively small.

If the breakout can sustain, the stock may begin its upleg from here.


Chart: CIMB's daily chart as at Mar 24, 2015_10.00am (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, CIMB.

Monday, March 23, 2015

EG: An attractive consumer electronic products manufacturer (UPDATED)

Background

EG Industries Bhd ("EG") Group is involved in:
  • Provision of electronic manufacturing services (EMS) for computer peripherals, telecommunication and consumer electronic/electrical, and automotive industrial products industries.
  • Manufacturing of complete box built products under original equipment manufacturer/original design manufacturer (OEM/ODM) 
  • Manufacturing and sale of two layer solid wood parquet flooring
Corporate Development

In July 2014, Jubilee Industries Holdings Ltd. (Catalist:5OS) acquired 26% stake in EG from Jupax Enterprise Sdn Bhd and Tai Yeong Sheng for RM21 million (consisting of 19.504 million shares and 3.704 million warrants). This would valued the stock at around RM1.05 apiece (assuming the warrant is priced at RM0.10 each). Since this development, the earnings of EG has risen substantially, as seen below.

Recent Financial Performance (UPDATED)

For QE31/12/2014 & QE30/9/2014, EG reported net profit of RM10.3 million & RM7.6 million respectively. This compared favorably to net profit/(loss) of RM2 million for the preceding 9 quarters. Revenue has however remained at about RM200-250 million a quarter.

The reason for the substantial improvement is higher profit margin of 3-5% as compared to +/- 1% previously. Given the immediate improvement in profit margin, I can only conclude that the new shareholder has passed on some contracts with higher profit margin to EG. 


Diagram 1: EG's last 11 quarters' results (Sourced: ShareInvestor.com)


Diagram 2: EG's last 11 years' results (Sourced: ShareInvestor.com)

Update to the Financial results for QE31/12/2014 & QE30/9/2014

A reader, Big Sea had pointed out that the result for the last 2 quarters were boosted by exceptional items, which I had overlooked. Thank you, Big Sea!

I have tabulated below the quarterly & yearly P&L for your easy reading. EG had benefited from fair value gain on the realization of available-for-sale financial assets of RM989k & RM1.316 million in QE31/12/2014 & QE30/9/2014, respectively. Even if this gain is excluded, the NP is still very substantial. PER will be revised from 1.7 times to 2.0 times.

 
 Table 1: EG's last 11 quarterly P&L

 
 Table 2: EG's last 10 annuai P&L (plus projection for FY15)

Future Expansion

It is reported that EG is now operating near full capacity. It is looking to expand its production capacity (here). When new capacity has been installed, it is expected to achieved an annual turnover of RM2 billion (or double the current revenue) (here).

Financial Position

As at 31/12/2014, EG's financial position is deemed fairly tight with current ratio at 1 time and gearing ratio at 1.5 times. To financial its expansion as well as to bring down its gearing ratio, EG is likely to propose a Rights Issue this year.

Valuation (Updated)

EG (closed at RM0.835 as at 4.00pm today) is now trading at a current PE of 2.0 1.7 times! (no mistake!). This makes EG an extremely attractive stock.

Technical Outlook

EG has broken above its downtrend line, RR at RM0.40 in early 2014. Its immediate resistance is at RM1.00.


Chart 2: EG's monthly chart as at Mar 23, 2015_12.30pm(Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on improved financial performance, attractive valuation & positive technical outlook, EG is a good stock for long-term investment. Its weak financial position is a matter of concern but this can be easily rectified by carrying out a Rights Issue this year.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, EG.

Scientx: Earnings increased

Result Update

For QE31/1/2015, Scientx's net profit  increased by 19% q-o-q or 6% y-o-y to RM36 million while revenue increased by 7% q-o-q or 21% y-o-y to RM463 million. Revenue increased q-o-q mainly attributed to the property division. Profit before taxation for the current financial quarter under review was RM47.3 million, an increase of 17.8% compared to RM40.2 million recorded in the preceding financial quarter. The increase in profit is consistent with the increase in revenue.


Table 1: Scientex's last 8 quarterly results

Segmental results shows that manufacturing division's operating profit declined due to lower margin (from 5.8% to 5.0%) which more than offset the 12%-increase in revenue. The property division's operating margin also dropped (from 30% to 29%) but the operating profit improved due to 45%-rise in revenue.


Table 2: Scientex's segmental results


Chart 1: Scientex's last 38 quarterly results

Valuation

Scientex (at RM6.62 at the close of the morning session) is now trading at a trailing PE of 9.7 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 68 sen). With strong growth of about 21% in the last 4 quarters, Scientx is an attractive growth stock with PEG ratio is about 0.5 time only.

Technical Outlook

Scientx has been in an uptrend line, SS. Monthly MACD & Slow Stochastic have hooked down due to recent weak sentiment. The stock should find support at the psychological level of RM6.00.


Chart 2: Scientex's weekly chart as at Mar 23, 2015_12.30pm(Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance, attractive valuation & positive technical outlook, Scientex remains a good stock for medium to long-term investment.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Scientex.

Friday, March 20, 2015

Pohuat: Seasonally weaker top-line & bottom-line

Results Update

For QE31/1/2015, Pohuat's net profit dropped 26% q-o-q but rose 29% y-o-y to RM8.2 million while revenue was down 3% q-o-q but rose 10% y-o-y to RM105 million. Revenue declined q-o-q due to lower shipment  of  furniture  from  Vietnam - resulted in revenue of RM67.67 million compared to RM72.65 million previously. The peak shipment in the preceding quarter coincided with the inventory built-up for US distributors prior to the Christmas/New Year seasonality peak.  The Malaysian operation achieved a revenue of  RM34.48  million, which was broadly similar to the previous quarter due to the less cyclical nature of the office furniture segment.

As a result of lower revenue, the Group achieved a lower profit before tax of RM10.00 million as compared to RM13.34  million previously. The lower  profitability from the Vietnamese  operations  was mainly due to the  higher absorption of fixed manufacturing against a lower level of production following the pre-Christmas/New Year festive peak in the preceding quarter.

Pohuat's prospects going forward may be affected by slowing demand -there are tentative signs of slowdown in US housing market (here) - and a possible reversal of USD - if the expected interest rate hike is deferred (here).


Table 1: Pohuat's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Pohuat's last 33 quarterly results

Valuation

Pohuat (closed at RM2.30 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 9.6 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 24.02 sen). At this PER, Pohuat is deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

Pohuat, which is in a sharp uptrend, has een volatile trading in the past 4-5 weeks. This could be signs of profit-taking since the stock has risen substantially over the past 2 years.


Chart 2: Pohuat's weekly chart as at Mar 19, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)


Chart 3: Pohuat's monthly chart as at Mar 19, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance (albeit a drop in the last quarter), reasonable valuation & positive technical outlook, Pohuat could be a good stock for medium-term investment. However, some profit-taking is advisable at this stage given Pohuat's sharp rise in the past 2 years.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Pohuat.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Crude Oil: A Temporary Bottom?

Three days ago, WTIC broke its January low at USD43. Yesterday, it came back above that low. This is a support break that did not hold. If it accompanied by increased volume, this could be a reversal. Alas, the volume was actually smaller. Nonetheless it could be a temporary bottom; thus setting the stage for a technical rebound.


Chart: WTIC's daily chart as at Mar 18 2015  (Source: Stockcharts)

Based on the above, O&G stocks could stage a rebound after the recent sell-off.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, O&G stocks. 

Topglov: Profit Increased

Results Update

For QE28/2/2015, Topglov's net profit rose by 15% q-o-q or 35% y-o-y to RM56 million while revenue inched higher by 1% q-o-q or 4% y-o-y at RM572 million. Revenue increased marginally q-o-q due to a stronger US Dollar. Its PBT rose to  RM69.6  million,  mainly  attributed  to  ongoing  efficiency, quality enhancement initiatives, lower raw material prices and a stronger US Dollar. Raw material prices continued to trend down compared to same quarter last year, as both natural rubber and nitrile latex prices fell by around 7.0%.


Table: Topglov's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Topglov's last 35 quarterly results

From Chart 2 below, we can see that both Harta & Kossan's revenue had made a new high. Due to a fire in one of its plants, Supermx's revenue had been eratic. On the other hand, Topglov's revenue had yet to make a new high.


 Chart 2: Harta, Kossan, Supermx & Topglov's PL


From Chart 3 below, we can see that Topglov's profit margin has been rising for the past 2 quarters. Given that Topglov's numbers are 2 months ahead of its competitors - benefiting a bit more from the lower prices of raw material & weaker Ringgit - this trend seems promising. Nevertheless, it must be noted that Topglov's PBT margin still lags behind its competitors, Kossan & Supermx (both PBT margin at ~14%) as well as Harta (with PBT margin of 25%).


 Chart 3: Harta, Kossan, Supermx & Topglov's Profit margin

Valuation

Topglov (closed at RM5.20 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 16.7 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 31.17 sen). At this PE multiple, Topglov is fully valued.

Technical Outlook

From the chart below, we can see that Topglov share price rose in an uptrend from 2002 to 2010 and since then, it has been moving within a large trading range (with support at RM4.20 & resistance at RM6.20). Indicators are signaling an upswing in the share price- as noted in my earlier post.


Chart 4: Topglov's monthly chart as at Mar 18, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
 
 If we looked at the weekly chart, we can see a triangle, ABC.


Chart 5: Topglov's weekly chart as at Mar 18, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on better financial performance & mildly positive technical outlook, Topglov is rated a Trading BUY.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Topglov.

SCGM: Earning improved

Results Update
 
For QE31/1/2015, SCGM's net profit rose 27% q-o-q or 17% y-o-y to RM3.8 million while revenue rose 5% q-o-q or 11% y-o-y to RM27 million. Revenue increased q-o-q in line with improved demand from the general Asian and Australian markets. Bottom-line improved due to higher sales, lower raw material costs and foreign exchange gains - as a result of a stronger U.S. dollar.

 
Table: SCGM's last 8 quarterly results

 
Chart 1: SCGM's last 24 quarterly results

Valuation

SCGM (closed at RM2.69 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 16.6 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 16.18 sen). At this PE, SCGM is fully valued. It is no longer a penny stock trading at RM0.50 in December 2012 with a PE of 5.3 times.

Technical Outlook

SCGM is in a long-term uptrend line with support at RM2.10. Last week, it broke above its recent high of RM2.50.

 
Chart 2: SCGM's weekly chart as at Mar 18, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)


Chart 3: SCGM's monthly chart as at Mar 18, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance & positive technical outlook, SCGM is still a good stock for long-term investment. However, its upside may be limited given its current high PER. 

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, SCGM.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Crude Oil: A Test of the Low?

Crude oil prices are testing the low recorded in January. From Chart 1, we can see that WTIC is testing the USD43 level again. A break below this level could lead to further downside for crude oil. Let's not forget that a failure to make a new low could set the stage for a decent rebound for crude oil.


Chart 1: WTIC's daily chart as at Mar 16, 2015  (Source: Stockcharts)

On February 24, I have recommended that we should take some profit on O&G stocks in anticipation of a drop in crude oil prices (here). While some stocks are able to weather the fall in crude oil fairly well...


Chart 2: Muhibah, Uzma & Coastal's daily chart as at Mar 17, 2015_10.30am (Source: ShareInvestor.com) 

Others did not.


Chart 3: UMWOG, ARMADA & SKPetro's daily chart as at Mar 17, 2015_10.30am (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Over the next few days, we will have a clearer picture of how WTIC & Brent will perform. If they rebound from the current low, then the USD43 mark a strong support for WTIC. O&G stocks should recover along side the recovery in crude oil.

A stock that is inversely correlated to the performance of crude oil is Airasia. In January, Airasia share price rose while crude oil prices dropped. This round, the drop in crude oil failed to give any boost to Airasia share price, which had sliding. The under-performance could be attributed to Airasia reporting a net loss of RMRM429 million for 4Q2014 (mainly due to forex losses in 4Q2014 of RM648 million). If Airasia were to drop to RM2.20, that could be a good entry level to this stock.


Chart 4: Airasia's weekly chart as at Mar 17, 2015_10.30am (Source: ShareInvestor.com) 

Based on the above, we should track crude oil prices closely to gauge when O&G stocks could be a trading BUY again.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, O&G stocks and/or Airasia.

Redtone: Sultan on Board!

Redtone broke to the upside of its "ascending triangle: (ABC) at RM0.83 yesterday. This morning, it rallied to an intra-day high of RM0.90. We saw in the Star newspaper that the Sultan of Johor has raised his stake in the company from 4.8% to 20% (here). Is this a precursor to a corporate move by the Sultan of Johor? We will have to wait & see.


Chart: Redtone's weekly chart as at Mar 17, 2015_10.30am (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Based on the upside breakout of the "ascending triangle", it is likely that Redtone may commence its upleg soon.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Redtone.

Friday, March 13, 2015

GBGAQRS: Off to the Races!

GBGAQRS-WA broke to the upside of its trading range at RM0.45 yesterday (see Chart 1). This morning, the share also broke above its trading range at RM1.30 (see Chart 2).  


Chart 1: GBGAQRS-WA's daily chart as at Mar 13, 2015_10.30am (Source: ShareInvestor.com)


Chart 2: GBGAQRS's daily chart as at Mar 13, 2015_10.30am (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

 GBGAQRS was trading at around RM1.20 or near the line, SS connecting its trough for the past 15 months. The stock has recently broken above the intermediate downtrend line, RR at RM1.25.


Chart 3: GBGAQRS's weekly chart as at Mar 13, 2015_10.30am (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

With the upside breakout of the trading range for both the warrant & share, it is likely that GBGAQRS may commence its upleg soon.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, GBGAQRS & GBGAQRS-WA